Civil War around the corner?

As you may well know, the insurgency in Iraq is mostly Sunni-based... they are the minority, but were in the position of power with Saddam and aren't really ready to see that change.

Up to this point, they have been targeting the US forces, aid groups, and anyone in or helping the nascent Iraqi government or security forces. However, I think this is the first time they have so brazenly targetted the Shi'ite faction.

That's not good... things are fragile as it is going into the elections. If one faction or the other is misrepresented, and/or if the elections are viewed as frauduent for whatever reason, the various tribes will be at each other's throats and the US doesn't have enough power around to keep them apart from each other. But with stuff like this happening, why wait for the elections before initiating civil war?