Endorsing Putin?

Kristof has a new column up where he starts off strong against Putin, but then oddly mellows his attitude towards him at the end:

In effect, Mr. Putin has steered Russia from a dictatorship of the left to a dictatorship of the right (Chinese leaders have done much the same thing). Mussolini, Franco, Pinochet, Park Chung Hee and Putin all emerged in societies suffering from economic and political chaos. All consolidated power in part because they established order and made the trains - or planes - run on time.

That's why Mr. Putin still has 70 percent approval ratings in Russia: he has done well economically, presiding over growth rates of 5 to 10 percent. Polls by the Pew Research Center suggest that Russia is fertile soil for such a Putinocracy: Russians say, by a margin of 70 to 21, that a strong leader can solve their problems better than a democratic form of government.

Still, a fascist Russia is a much better thing than a Communist Russia. Communism was a failed economic system, while Franco's Spain, General Pinochet's Chile and the others generated solid economic growth, a middle class and international contacts - ultimately laying the groundwork for democracy. Eventually we'll see pro-democracy demonstrations in Moscow like those in
Kiev.

We need to engage Russia and encourage economic development to nurture that political evolution - and reduce the risk that Russia, embittered and humiliated, will spiral into the kind of conspiratorial xenophobia found in parts of the Arab world. And, frankly, we need to engage Russia for our own purposes - such as fighting nuclear proliferation. But we also must stay on the
right side of history.

Nicky makes some good points in that nuturing economic institutions and creating a solid middle class is one of the necessary steps one needs to take when assembling a democracy; however, is such a step sufficient, and is a swing to the fascist right necessary for the rise of the middle class prior to a move to democracy?

I would argue no... China is certainly becoming a rising economic power, but the leadership has neatly decided to embrace pseudo-western changes rather than fight them... in doing such, they maintain as tight a grip on power as ever. Additionally, several formerly communist eastern European countries have been progressing well through the various stages of democracy without swinging to a fascist regime.

Finally, there is a question that Kristof dances around but doesn't really address: what about a fascist Russia's effect's on its neighbors and their own democratic institutions? We see some of that in the Ukraine and elsewhere right now of course... we might concede that a rightward swing might be good for Russia itself, but they don't exist in a vacuum: it would wreck havoc on the surrounding countries, and I doubt relations with Washington would continue to be so cozy. Putin is not our guy, and he should have some restrictions placed on him beyond simple "engagement"... unfortunately, Dubya has neither the intelligence nor the will to do it.